Value Betting Tips, Odds and Probabilities

You must have heard the phrase, ‘value betting tips’ but often it passes us by without leaving any impression. In this article, we will be showing you the meaning of value betting.

 

Free Value Betting Tips

Although used frequently in the betting industry, the phrase value betting is not often defined, which leads to a lot of misunderstanding and confusion. The word itself can be interpreted in many different ways. To what value betting is, we first need to understand that value is a synonym for the word worth, benefit, advantage, profit, gain, rate, amount and price, among others. In the betting world, price and rate are the key words to concentrate on when thinking about value.

value betting and odds

In order to help you to clearly understand value betting tips, we will approach the subject in a step-by-step manner, as the language of betting odds and prices is not one which many people understand. Usually, odds are not only all-inclusive prices but are also monetary units displayed as fractions, money lines or decimals.

  • Let’s take a literal example.

Decimal odds of 1.27 (fractional odds of 27/100 or US odds of -370) mean that if you win the bet, you will make a profit of 27% but should you lose the bet, your money is forfeited.

Compare it to buying a bottle of beer. If you pay $2 for a bottle, you accept that the value of your beer is $2. Judging the value for money in a bottle of beer is easier than judging the same from a betting perspective, and it’s for this reason that people often fail to calculate the value of their expected return.

Judging a bet or a series of bets can be tricky, which means you can often be in the situation of not understanding why an anticipated big win didn’t materialize, and in sports betting, odds are frequently distorted.

 

Finding the opportunities

Either with the earlies and a faster estimation of the probabilities, or with the closing lines with a more accurate estimation of the probabilities, you can find an opportunity to place a value bet. Of course, it is even better if we have a fast and accurate estimation of the probability, so we can get some profit either from the very profitable earlies (although their liquidity is lower) or from the very liquid closing lines (although their edge is usually low), especially if they don’t change at all.

Value bets are found when the odds are higher than the value corresponding to the real probability (minimum profitable odds), independently of being earlies or closing odds.

Betting odds

You can convert betting odds to implied probabilities; however, you must understand that odds have nothing to do with actual or expected outcomes. If you remember this, then you are on the right tracks as far as value betting is concerned.

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